Pac-12 Week 6 Picks
Season to date (25-13) Straight Up (23-13)* Against the Spread
Saturday October, 5th
#60 Arizona (3-1) at #49 Colorado (3-1)
1:30pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Line: Colorado -4.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Colorado 66%
Beta_Rank Line: Colorado -7.02 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Tough to get a great read on this game with Tate and Taylor potentially out along with Shenault and Colorado's other injuries. Arizona's defense is playing quite a bit better than the first two weeks, but Colorado's offense has been very good through the early part of the season. I don't think then need Shenault to put up points given how well Brown and Nixon have played. If Arizona contains the Buffs it comes from a combination of the improved coverage and exploiting the Buffs middling offensive line. If Montez has too much time then Arizona's coverage isn't going to matter; you can't hold coverage forever. The other side of the ball is complicated. I think Arizona scores whether you have Tate or Gunnell back there. Colorado flat out stinks covering the pass. Arizona is good running outside the tackles and then coming back inside later in the game. The home field advantage feels like enough to get Colorado over the hump here and if they stay even or positive on turnovers they should win. The wildcard is Tate running wild and hitting deep passes against this defense.
Colorado 34 Arizona 28
#32 Cal (4-1) at #11 Oregon (3-1)
5:00pm PT, Fox
Line: Oregon -20.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Oregon 76%
Beta_Rank Line: Oregon -9.52 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Devon Modster was a better QB at UCLA with Fisch calling plays than you saw with Baldwin last week, but what should we expect with a week of getting first team reps and with Baldwin, hopefully, not setting him for failure with 2 bad runs and then throwing on 3rd and long play calling. I would not have a lot of faith in this Cal offense against this Oregon defense even with Garbers healthy, so don't crush Modster if he looks bad. Oregon's defense is #4 in Beta_Rank and rolling. Cal has been far worse than expected against the run this season and it is something they are going to have to clean up in this game where Oregon's offensive play calling is going to lean that way. I like the Ducks, but 3 touchdowns feels like a lot of points for a game where Oregon runs the ball and Cal reduces possessions.
Oregon 27 Cal 10
#81 Oregon State (1-3) at #62 UCLA (1-4)
6:00pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Line: UCLA -6.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: UCLA 66%
Beta_Rank Line: UCLA -7.02 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This game is a matchup of a merely bad defense against a very good offense and an okay offense against a very bad defense. Smith is a smart enough playcaller to avoid doing something dumb like running the ball right up the gut at UCLA's defense. Luton should have a field day against this UCLA secondary. The trouble is on the other side of the ball where even Thompson-Robinson or Burton should light up this Beaver defense. Kelly should be smart and get Felton involved and going early. I like the Bruins to win at home in front of 30,000 people.
UCLA 41 Oregon State 36
#15 Washington (4-1) at #54 Stanford (2-3)
7:30pm PT, ESPN
Line: Washington -14.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Washington 83%
Beta_Rank Line: Wasahington -9.26 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Stanford's pass defense has been absolutely abysmal and that has been a big surprise this season. They have been far better against the run this season. Washington should be smart enough to pass first and come back to the run, but the hook could be a problem if the Huskies get up big and start trying to salt the game away. It could let Stanford back in the game. The Huskies didn't exactly nail their game last week where Matt Fink looked pretty bad with some unforced errors. I like them to win, but not cover.
Washignton 31 Stanford 20