Rob Bowron @Beta_Rank_FB
Pac-12 Week 13 Picks
Season to date (50-21) Straight Up (40-27)* Against the Spread
Saturday November, 23rd
#66 UCLA (4-6) at #27 USC (7-4)
12:30pm PT, ABC
Line: USC -14.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: USC 84%
Beta_Rank Line: USC -13.52 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: I don't like this matchup a lot for the Bruins. USC comes in at #18 on offense with a #108/#8 run/pass split. The Bruins defense has been pretty god against the run sitting at #67 with a #37/#99 run/pass split. The Bruins are going to have to generate some pass rush to help out their spotty coverage. It could get ugly if Slovis has time to find his WR's. The Bruins offense has been puttering along at #70 with a #60/#66 run/pass split. USC's defense isn't good enough to put them in a box most of the game, but at #48 with a #68/#40 run/pass split they are good enough to get more stops than the Bruins. UCLA probably needs to finish +2 on turnovers to get a win here.
USC 31 UCLA 20
#59 California (5-5) at #84 Stanford (4-6)
1:30pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Line: Stanford -2.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Cal 72%
Beta_Rank Line: Cal -4.14 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: I have no idea who you trust in this game. It feels like the only consistent unit has been Cal's pass defense, but they were torched last week vs. USC. A lot of that is on the pass rush; Slovis had too much time. Chase Garbers was back, and he was rusty, and then he got hurt, so it's likely Modster again; leading Cal's anemic offense. The Bears come in at #98 with a #53/#97 run/pass split. They get a bad Stanford defense that might be missing Adeebo. The Cardinal are at #87 with a #78/#90 run/pass split. Even Cal should be able to come up with something offensively against this defense. The Cardinal offense has been an enigma all season; everything from good to awful. They grade out at #80 with a #113/#37 run/pass split. Cal's defense is still pretty good with a glaring weakness right up the middle in their run defense. The Bears are #30 with #60/#17 run/pass split. If the Bears can put pressure on the Cardinal then they win.
Cal 21 Stanford 17
#9 Oregon (9-1) at #54 Arizona State (5-5)
4:30pm PT, ABC
Line: Oregon -13.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Oregon 93%
Beta_Rank Line: Oregon -17.59 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Oregon is rolling, ASU is reeling, what could go wrong? Nothing probably. The Ducks come in with a passing attack that should feast on the ASU secondary. Oregon is #10 on offense with a #40/#17 run/pass split. They get an 'OK' ASU defense that is far better against the run; #49 overall with a #28/#75 run/pass split. The ASU offense is really struggling; coming in at #79 with a #101/#45 run/pass split. The offensive line has been awful. Oregon's defense is playing really well down the stretch; they grade out at #10 with a #23/#10 run/pass split. This game should be a big Oregon win. If the Ducks avoid turnovers they should win easy.
Oregon 37 ASU 17
#62 Oregon State (5-5) at #36 Washington State (5-5)
6:00pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Line: WSU -10.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: WSU 72%
Beta_Rank Line: WSU -8.63 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This should be a fun game with a lot of points. The Cougs come in at #7 on offense with a #129/#1 run/pass split. The Beavs defense isn't good #106 with a #100/#103 run/pass split. The matchup here is Gordon, who throws the best deep ball in CFB and likes to take deep shots behind his line, vs. Rashed. If the Beavs can get any pressure it could slow this Cougar offense on what they like to do most; hit big passes down the field. The Oregon State offense comes in limping a bit. They grade out at #29 with a #45/#26 run/pass split. They have struggled against teams with superior talent, but that should not be a problem with the Cougs. They come in at #107 with a #77/#119 run/pass split. Watch for hidden yards and turnovers. The Cougs have a big special teams advantage; #13 vs. #62.
Washington State 48 OSU 41
#5 Utah (9-1) at #85 Arizona (4-6)
7:00pm PT, FS1
Line: Utah -23.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Utah 99%
Beta_Rank Line: Utah -31.52 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This game should be brutal. Utah's offense is a high efficiency machine and their defense is talented and well coached. Arizona's offense is faltering behind an offensive line that was thin at the beginning of the year and has been decimated by injuries and the defense is a mess; with another coach fired this week. It's the #8 offense with a #16/#36 run/pass split against the #100 defense with a #105/#79 run/pass split. Arizona's defensive line might be the worst single unit in the Power 5 so Utah should be able to get what they want against the Wildcats. The other side of the football could be interesting with Tate likely getting the Senior Day start. The Wildcats are #59 on offense with a #69/#43 run/pass split. That is quite an accomplishment given where the line is. The Utes defense is not going to be a good matchup with their great DL. They come in at #3 with a #2/#8 run/pass split. The Utes have a big special teams advantage too; #45 vs. #110. Utes win big.
Utah 41 Arizona 10
#21 Washington (6-4) at #91 Colorado (4-6)
7:00pm PT, ESPN
Line: Washington -14.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Washington 94%
Beta_Rank Line: Washington -18.98 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: The up and down Buffs get the up and down Huskies. The Huskies offense had a terrible game their last game out and come in at #51 on offense with a #55/#47 run/pass split. They get a Buffs defense at #99 with a #57/#118 run/pass split. I like this to be a signature game for Eason who puts up big numbers here and next week and makes Husky fans nervous about the Draft. The Colorado offense has been unwatchable and they come in at #82 with an #81/59 run/pass split. The Huskies have been rounding into form and come in at #9 with a #10/#18 run/pass split. They had better not struggle with Montez and company if they want those numbers to hold up. I think their last game against the Beavers they were able to lean on their talent.
Washington 38 Colorado 20