Pac-12 Week 11 Picks
Updated: Nov 9, 2019
Season to date (43-19) Straight Up (36-22)* Against the Spread
Friday November, 8th
7:30pm PT, FS1
Line: Washington -10.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Washington 82%
Beta_Rank Line: Washington -7.26 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This game gives me fits trying to make sense of the line. Beta_Rank is leaning towards Oregon State vs. the spread, but I think Washington has the talent on defense to cause problems for Oregon State. The Beavers are great on offense, #5 currently, and waxed a bad Arizona defense last week. The Beavs have a #27/#13 run/pass split. That matches up pretty well against Washington on paper. The Huskies are #33 on defense with a #35/#49 run/pass split. I guess you could say my concern is that Hodgins has 63 of 167 Beaver receptions this season and Washington is likely more akin to Cal in their ability to scheme him out. The other side of the ball is a huge Huskies advantage. The Huskies are #28 on offense with a #56/#23 run/pass split. They get a Beaver defense ranked #124 with a #112/#122 run/pass split. Eason should have a field day. The deciding factor for me here is to go with Smith right now. I like the Huskies to win, but the Beavers to get the W versus the spread.
Washington 35 Oregon State 27
Saturday November, 9th
12:00pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Line: Stanford -3.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Stanford 66%
Beta_Rank Line: Stanford -3.14 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: I don't think the model has a good handle on Costello being back yet so I am happy to take the Cardinal here. Stanford's offense comes in at #85 with a #94/#56 run/pass split, but I think they are better than that with Costello in the game. They get one of the worst pass defenses in all of college football in Colorado. The Buffs come at #98 on defense, but with a huge #51/#120 run/pass split. Costello should be able to pick them apart. There is a part of me that wants to lean on Montez and the offense at home versus a decent, but not very good Stanford defense. The Buffaloes come in at a disappointing #75 with a #85/#52 run/pass split. They have been wildly up and down this season and have struggled against some truly bad defenses. Stanford is just ok; #65 overall with a #60/#71 run/pass split. Colorado should be able to put up some some points, but will they? I like Stanford here since Costello isn't fully priced in yet.
Stanford 31 Colorado 20
12:30pm PT, ABC
Line: ASU -1.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: USC 55%
Beta_Rank Line: USC -0.7 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This game feels like you need to see into the emotional state of each team. It could be close, but I could also see either team winning by three possessions pretty easily. The Sun Devils are reeling a bit on defense and get a USC offense that was more undone by turnovers last week than horrendous play. The Trojans come in at #32 overall and with a #91/#14 run/pass split. They get a #51 Sun Devil defense that has a #45/#72 run/pass split. You can drive the field on the Sun Devils who rank #117 in Drive Efficiency. The #53 Sun Devil offense did pretty well in garbage time against the Bruins, but the offensive line is still struggling to open lanes for Benjamin. They have a #61/#44 run/pass split. They get a Trojan defense still figuring it's way through inexperience and suffering from some injuries. The Trojans are currently #58 with a #73/#53 run/pass split. As I type this there are reports Daniels will be out for the Devils. I'd pick the Trojans anyway.
USC 34 ASU 30
4:00pm PT, Pac-12 Network
Line: WSU -8.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: WSU 84%
Beta_Rank Line: WSU -8.92 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This game is interesting because it is truly strength on strength. The Cougs are the pass happy warriors with a great WR corp and they get a Cal defense that is struggling to stop the run, but is exceptional in the secondary. WSU comes in at #7 on offense, with a QB in Gordon that takes advatage of his OL and weapons to get the ball downfield. The Cougs have a #128/#1 run pass split. The Bears have a huge split of their own; rolling in at #20 on defense and with a #77/#5 run/pass split. The Cougs rely on big plays #3 in Explosive Drives. The Bears don't give up big plays at #16 in Explosive Drives. This should be fun. The other side of the ball is simply very bad versus bad. The Bears offense is just a mess. They come in at #114 with #79/#107 run/pass split. Nothing is working though; even against a bad defense like Oregon State. The Cougs come in at #87 with a #65/#104 run/pass split. Anyone think the Bears can get the pass going? Me neither.
Wazzu 31 Cal 13