Pac-12 Week 0 Picks
Updated: Aug 28, 2019
We are invincible.
Bryant: Season to date (0-0) Straight Up (0-0) Against the Spread
Rob: Season to date (0-0) Straight Up (0-0)* Against the Spread
Saturday August, 26th
#60 Arizona (0-0) at #115 Hawai'i (0-0)
7:30pm PT, CBS Sports
Line: Arizona -11.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Arizona 85%
Beta_Rank Line: Arizona -13.49 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: So we need to sit down and have an honest conversation about Hawai'i y'all because the illusion of wins has people far higher on Hawai'i than the numbers, or Vegas, support. Hawai'i did win 7 games last season, but they had the 99th strongest schedule and 114th Record Strength in Beta_Rank last season; in other words don't get lost in the record. They played some bad teams and had some good luck. Beta_Rank's projection has Hawai'i's defense getting worse, #128, even though they return quite a bit of production from last season. I don't think they'll be worse, but I don't think they will suddenly be good. They also return a lot of production on offense and I would expect the offense to take a bit of a step forward, but the defense and special teams will likely be so bad that Arizona has a long field to defend against. I like Arizona to put up points easily and to make stops on a long field. In other words I think Hawai'i will put up a lot of yards, but fewer points. You should look to see if Arizona's defense looks like it can live up to it's projected jump and if Khalil Tate runs enough to make the defense focus on his legs. If those things happen Arizona meets the projection. If not, well we'll be making adjustments to the projections with real data.
Arizona 48 Hawai'i 27
Bryant: Aside from Cole McDonald, the best player on Hawaii’s football roster is the weather in Honolulu, which will reach 80 degrees and 75% humidity around kickoff. That gives me pause before taking Arizona. That and the fact that Hawaii is going to score points. Cole McDonald is good and he is going to find three water bug receivers in space. Jojo Ward and Cedric Byrd caught for a combined 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns. They will be joined by Melequise Stovall, the former blue-chip Cal transfer. Arizona’s defense will need to play disciplined against the run-and-shoot offense and I think we all know that discipline is not the hearthstone of the Arizona Athletics department, Arizona's defense included.
Still, Khalil Tate is going to run. And it will be glorious. Hawaii’s defense is really, really bad. Bad enough to get gassed, particularly in the 4th quarter. Behind Khalil Tate are two talented running backs and a decent offensive line. There are enough bodies and talent on Arizona’s roster to pull away from an 11 point spread against a sub-100 defense, particularly late in the game, even in the humidity.
Arizona: Covers | Hawai'i: Googles Oregon State Defensive Stats