• Rob Bowron @Beta_Rank_FB

Bowl Season Week III: The Leftovers Day I




Season to date (89-33) Straight Up (66-48)* Against the Spread

The Beta_Rank Matchup Tool


Thurday January, 2nd

The Birmingham Bowl

#59 Boston College (6-6) vs. #47 Cincinnati (10-3)

12:00pm PT, ESPN

Line: Cincinnati -7.0

Beta_Rank Win Prob: Cincinnati 61%

Beta_Rank Line: Cincinnati -3.28 (DO NOT GAMBLE)


Beta_Rank Breakdown


Rob: Well I would not tune in to see the Bearcats offense against the Eagles defense. Cincy comes in at #85 and they have a #32/#107 run/pass split that could be trouble if the Eagles have taken the extra time to prepare to stop the run; as many teams seem to have. The Eagles are at #88 with a #35/#124 split. The Eagles are a horrid passing defense so The Bearcats should be able to throw the ball, but they can be pretty stubborn offensively. The other side of the ball should be A LOT of fun. The Eagles have a good offense at #28 with a #6/#101 run/pass split, but they get a #29 Cincy defense with a #34/#33 split. I also think the Bearcats should have taken the time to prep for the Eagles run game. I like Cincy here, but I think it's closer than 7.

Cincinnati 20 Boston College 17

The Gator Bowl

#41 Indiana (8-4) vs. #36 Tennessee (7-5)

4:00am PT, ESPN

Line: Tennessee -3.0

Beta_Rank Win Prob: Tennessee 56%

Beta_Rank Line: Tennessee -1.56 (DO NOT GAMBLE)


Beta_Rank Breakdown


Rob: Another fun game on tap. The Vols are a very slight favorite in the model here. They bring in a middling offense at #51 that is all Explosive Drives, #30, and zero Drive Efficiency;#122. They have a #71/#40 run/pass split. The Hoosiers have a pretty bad defense at #78 and are horrible at Explosive Drives, #106, and have a #77/#87 run/pass split. The Hoosiers are going to have to contain big plays in this game. The other side of the ball is Indiana's #17 offense with a #9 Explosive Drives grade and a #86/#7 split against the Vols #26 defense. The Vols grade out at #26 in Explosive Drives and have a #30/#38 split. The Hoosiers should benefit from being a pass oriented offense and those seem to have been more difficult for teams to prepare for this bowl season.


Tennessee 31 Indiana 30

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