Bowl Season Week III: New Year New You
Season to date (87-31) Straight Up (62-48)* Against the Spread
Wednesday January, 1st
The Outback Bowl
#15 Minnesota (10-2) vs. #6 Auburn (9-3)
10:00am PT, ESPN
Line: Auburn -7.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Auburn 73%
Beta_Rank Line: Auburn -6.78 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This should be a fun game that could be a little closer than we expect if Minnesota follows something I have been seeing this bowl season and has their defense ready to slow down a rushing dominant offense. The Tigers have shaped up on offense as the season has gone on; they come in at #26 with a #20/#70 run/pass split. The Gophers do not have a good defense. They are at #58 with a #67#44 split. If the Gophers can put the extra time to prepare to good use in scheming to get at Auburn's rushing attack then they could be frisky on this side of the ball. The other side of the ball is the marquee matchup. Minnesota's #6 offense vs. Auburn's #3 defense. The Gophers have a #21/#17 run/pass split and the Tigers are at #3/#4. I think it ends up closer than a touchdown.
Auburn 24 Minnesota 20
The Citrus Bowl
#11 Michigan (9-3) vs. #4 Alabama (10-2)
10:00am PT, ABC
Line: Alabama -8.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Alabama 87%
Beta_Rank Line: Alabama -15.39 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: The last time Michigan went up against a offense in the realm of Alabama; it did not go well. The Tide come in at #2 on offense and they seem to be only off a little without Tua; the extra bowl practice time should help. The Tide have a #61/#2 run/pass split. Michigan's defense is very good, but in the era of BIG OFFENSE, the Tide should put up points. The Wolverines are #13 and have a #10/#23 split. Michigan's offensive remake seems to have taken hold by the end of the season and they come in at #16 with a #50/#13 split. This is not Nick Saban's usual monster defense. The Tide are at #12 with a #24/#13 split. The Wolverines have a big special teams advantage #44 vs. #105, so if the Tide end up settling for field goals they might end up empty handed.
Alabama 41 Michigan 30
The Rose Bowl
#10 Oregon (11-2) vs. #7 Wisconsin (10-3)
2:00pm PT, ESPN
Line: Wisconsin -3.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Wisconsin 52%
Beta_Rank Line: Wisconsin/Oregon Pick'em (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This game should be a blast. Wisconsin and Oregon are cut from the same cloth. The Badgers #7 offense against the #6 Ducks defense is the highlight. The Badgers have a huge run/pass split at #4/#72, but the Ducks excel at stopping the run; #7/#10 split. The Badgers can struggle a little to put long drives together at #25 in Drive Efficiency and the Ducks are #4 there so the Badgers might need Explosive Drives; where they have a #5/#17 advantage. The other side of the ball is also a pretty even matchup. The #17 Ducks against the #17 Badgers. The Ducks have a #40/#24 run/pass split vs. the Badgers are at #23/#25. The interesting thing here is that the Ducks offense relies on big plays; #92 in Drive Efficiency and #9 in Explosive Drives. The Badgers are at #1 and #32. The Badgers find a way to get off the field and not give up long drives while the Ducks are seemingly setting up big plays instead of efficient drives. The Badgers have a special teams advantage at #24 vs. #54 so keep an eye on the kicking game. Oregon could struggle if they end up getting their big plays stopped short of the end zone and have to face Wisconsin's defensive Drive Efficiency down there.
Wisconsin 31 Oregon 30
The Sugar Bowl
#20 Baylor (11-2) vs. #5 Georgia (11-2)
5:45pm PT, ESPN
Line: Georgia -4.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Georgia 77%
Beta_Rank Line: Georgia -8.06 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This might not be the most fun game to watch. Georgia's offense is pretty middling at #32 and they have a #32/#50 run/pass split. Baylor has an excellent defense at #4 with a #19/#2 run. I expect the Bears have a plan to handle Georgia's run game. The other side of the ball is even more lopsided. Baylor's #59 offense with a #59/#55 versus the Bulldogs #2 defense with a #1/#6 split. Points could be at a premium is an understatement. Georgia has a big special teams advantage #5 vs. #60 so if it comes down to kicking you have to like the Bulldogs.
Georgia 19 Baylor 10