Bowl Season Week III: A Case of the Mondays
Season to date (80-29) Straight Up (57-44)* Against the Spread
Monday December, 28th
The First Responder Bowl
#54 Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. #82 Western Michigan (7-5)
9:30am PT, ESPN
Line: WKU -3.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: WKU 74%
Beta_Rank Line: WKU -6.61 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Hopefully this game can serve to feature what a good job Clayton White has done with WKU's defense. The Hilltoppers come in at #38, very respectable for G5, and they have a non split #41/#41 run/pass split. They get a Mustangs who come in at #68 and have a interesting efficiency/explosive profile with #19 in Drive Efficiency, but #92 in Explosive Drives and a #38/#82 run/pass split. The other side of the ball is a WKU advantage. The Hilltoppers are #67 on offense with a #96/#29 split. and they get the #78 defense with an #82/#83 split. They should be able to put up some points.
WKU 33 WMU 27
The Music City Bowl
#31 Mississippi State (6-6) vs. #62 Louisville (7-5)
1:00pm PT, ESPN
Line: Miss St -3.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Miss St 52%
Beta_Rank Line: Miss St -9.78 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: I want to like Louisville in this game. I want to make this about the dysfunction in Starkville and the new found harmony in Louisville, but I can't get past how sneaky good the Bulldogs offense is and how bad Louisville's defense is. The Bulldogs come in at #23 and are a rushing juggernaut with a #6/#97 run/pass split. They get a brutally bad Cardinals defense at #112 with a massive #126/#51 run/pass split. The Bulldogs could not have asked for a better draw on this side of the ball. The other side of the ball is an advatage for Louisville as they have a very good offense at #19 and with a #13/#60 split. The Bulldogs are a bad Power 5 defense at #56, but their #37/#73 run/pass split bodes well in the game. They also have a significant special teams advantage; #59 to #101
Miss State 41 Louisville 30
The Redbox Bowl
#41 Cal (7-5) vs. #63 Illinois (6-6)
1:00pm PT, Fox
Line: Cal -6.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Cal 73%
Beta_Rank Line: Cal -6.78 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This doesn't look nearly as fun as the other bowl on in it's time slot. The Bears offense might be better with Garbers and that could help. They come in at #76 with a #48/#78 run/pass split. Illinois is at #49 with a #64/#38 split. I like the Bears to be able to move the football enough with Garbers in. The other side of the ball is a comical mismatch of the #94 Illini offense against the #25 Bears defense. The Illini run the ball more effectively with a #53/#99 run/pass split, but the Bears secondary is so good that they should be able to load the box. The Bears have a #39/#24 split. I like the Bears to corral Illinois's bad offense.
Cal 27 Illinois 20
The Orange Bowl
#9 Florida (10-2) vs. #53 Virginia (9-4)
5:00pm PT, ESPN
Line: Florida -14.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Florida 96%
Beta_Rank Line: Florida -22.11 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: The last time a major bowl looked this lopsided Georgia totally crapped the bed vs. Texas, so bowl craziness could intervene to save the Hoos, but this looks ugly. Virginia's defense is very bad, #86, and they get a very good Florida offense; #12. The Gators are a passing first offense with nearly an Air Raid type run/pass split; #110/#5. The Cavaliers sit at #85/#89 on their run/pass split on defense. The other side of the ball should at least be a fun matchup. Virginia is #28 on offense with an #80/#19 run/pass split and the Gators matchup with a defense at #14 with a #15/#20 split. It doesn't help at all that the Gators are also better at special teams; #7 vs. #39.
Florida 44 Virginia 23