Bowl Season Week II Friday Funday
Season to date (73-27) Straight Up (54-38)* Against the Spread
Friday December, 27th
The Military Bowl
#46 North Carolina (6-6) vs. #58 Temple (8-4)
9:00am PT, ESPN
Line: UNC -6.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: UNC 64%
Beta_Rank Line: UNC -4.06 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Didn't get to this in time.
UNC to win, but not cover
The Pinstripe Bowl
#57 Michigan State (6-6) vs. #61 Wake Forest (8-4)
12:20pm PT, ESPN
Line: MSU -4.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: MSU 55%
Beta_Rank Line: Pitt -1.33 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Wake's defense just jumps out at me for being weird. They grade out at #52, but they are #6 in Drive Efficiency so they don't give up long drives, but they rank #105 in in Explosive Drives, so they do give up big plays. The Deacons have a #43/#63 run/pass split. They get e moribund Michigan State offense at #90 that doesn't put together long drives or big plays very easily. The Spartans have a #110/#55 run/pass split, so they make more of their hay passing. The other side of the ball should be equally dull. The Deacons have a pretty bad offense at #78 with an #88/#53 run/pass split. The Deacs are not the fun offense of years past and they get a pretty good Michigan State defense at #29 with a #29/#49 run/pass split. Neither team has much of a special teams advantage; #84 for the Spartans and #74 for the Deacons. It should be close, but Michigan State's defense could clamp down and give short field position to their offense, or Wake could, and break the game open.
MSU 20 Wake 17
The Texas Bowl
#28 Oklahoma State (8-4) vs. #24 Texas A&M (7-5)
3:45pm PT, ESPN
Line: A&M -4.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: A&M 61%
Beta_Rank Line: A&M -3.28 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: The start of three good bowl games tonight, the Texas Bowl is a matchup of ex-Big 12 opponents. The Aggies are not special on offense at #35 with a #46/#36 run pass split and they have a glaring weakness with Negative Drives at #60. They go 3 and out and give the ball up a little too easily. The Cowboys are #39 on defense with a #30/#53 run/pass split and they are good at Negative Drives; #25. The other side of the ball is the marquee matchup with the #16 Aggies defense with a #48/#7 run/pass split against the #25 Cowboy offense with an #11/#87 run/pass split. The Cowboys stink at Drive Efficiency at #92, but they put up Explosive Drives to make up for it at #20 and grade out at #4 in Play Efficiency. Can the Aggies tighten up against the run without stacking the box? I like the Aggies to win.
A&M 37 Oklahoma State 34
The Holiday Bowl
#17 USC (8-4) vs. #25 Iowa (9-3)
5:00pm PT, FS1
Line: Iowa -2.0
Beta_Rank Win Prob: USC 59%
Beta_Rank Line: USC -2.56 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: This should be fun. USC's great WR's against Iowa's secondary! The Trojans are an excellent offense with Harrell calling plays and Slovis dishing the ball. They come in at #10 with a #101/#4 run/pass split. They get the #9 defense in the Hawkeyes with a #13/#6 run/pass split. In the era of big offense USC has an advantage here, but Iowa has been tough all season. The Hawkeyes do not have a fun offense at #74 with an #80/#52 run/pass split and they get a managable Trojan defense at #55 with a #67/#42 split. The Hawkeyes have a special teams advantage at #8 vs. #32. The Trojans are buoyed by their placekicking game, but their return coverage has been spotty all season.
USC 30 Iowa 28
The Cheez-It Bowl
#17 Air Force (10-2) vs. #25 Washington State (6-6)
7:15pm PT, ESPN
Line: Air Force -2.5
Beta_Rank Win Prob: Air Force 62%
Beta_Rank Line: Air Force -3.56 (DO NOT GAMBLE)
Rob: Neither of these teams is well prepared to handle what the other team likes to do on offense. The Falcons come in at #16 on offense with a #3/#117 run/pass split and they get the #103 defense from the Cougs with a #63/#119 run/pass split. In theory the Cougs are better agfainst tthe run, but the Triple Option is different than your normal running attack. The Cougs come in at #9 with a #129/#1 split and a #5 rank in Explosive Drives. The Falcons are at #53 on defense with a wild #16/#100 split. This should be a wild ride.
Air Force 41 WSU 37